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The $2.3 Million Line Almaden Valley and Willow Glen Sellers Can't Ignore This Fall

The $2.3 Million Line Almaden Valley and Willow Glen Sellers Can't Ignore This Fall

A home on Sweetbriar Drive in San Jose listed at $3.5 million carries a Measure E tax bill of roughly $26,250, due at closing, on top of the standard county and city transfer taxes. That number does not show up on a listing sheet. It shows up in escrow, usually for the first time, and usually as a line item someone has to negotiate on the spot.

For sellers in Almaden Valley, Willow Glen, and the handful of San Jose neighborhoods where home prices cluster near this threshold, that surprise is becoming a familiar one. What is less familiar, and what almost nobody selling a home in San Jose right now seems to be tracking, is that the tax itself may not survive the year. A statewide ballot initiative headed for the November 3, 2026 general election could retroactively wipe it out.

That timing matters. If you are weighing when to list a home priced above $2.3 million in San Jose this fall, you are not just pricing against the market. You are pricing against a policy question that has not been settled yet.

What Measure E Actually Costs at San Jose's Price Points

Measure E is San Jose's real property transfer tax, approved by voters in March 2020 and layered on top of the standard county and city documentary transfer taxes that apply to every sale. It only applies above a set threshold, and that threshold moved on July 1, 2025, rising from $2 million to $2.3 million as part of the inflation adjustment written into the original measure.

Above that line, the tax is tiered and applies to the entire sale price, not just the amount over the threshold:

Sale Price Measure E Rate Example
$2,300,000.01 to $5,000,000 0.75% of full price $3.5M sale = $26,250
$5,000,000.01 to $10,000,000 1.00% of full price $7M sale = $70,000
Over $10,000,000 1.50% of full price $11M sale = $165,000

The city's own Measure E page and the Santa Clara County Clerk-Recorder's office both confirm these rates and the current $2.3 million threshold, which the county collects at the time the deed is recorded.

Notice how the math works: a home that sells for $2,299,999 owes nothing under Measure E. A home that sells for $2,300,001 owes $17,250. There is no phase-in. That cliff is exactly why homes priced close to the line get negotiated so carefully in San Jose right now, and why some sellers and buyers quietly agree to structure a deal at $2,299,999 rather than $2,300,000 when the numbers allow for it.

Who Actually Pays It

San Jose's standard city and county transfer taxes are customarily split 50/50 between buyer and seller, but that split is a custom, not a law. Measure E follows the same approach: the purchase agreement and escrow instructions decide who pays, and either side can push for the other to absorb more of it.

That negotiation happens inside escrow, often after both parties have already agreed on a price. A buyer who assumed the seller would cover the full amount and a seller who assumed a 50/50 split can find themselves renegotiating terms days before closing, over a tax neither side priced into their initial offer.

For homes sitting near the threshold, this is not a rounding error. On a $3.5 million sale, the difference between a 50/50 split and one side absorbing the full amount is over $13,000. Sellers who understand this ahead of time can build it into their pricing strategy and their counteroffer language from the start, rather than discovering it during a fee reconciliation call from escrow.

The Threshold Sellers Are Pricing Around May Not Survive November

Here is the part almost no one selling a home in San Jose this fall is factoring into their timeline. A statewide ballot initiative, referred to in this summer's reporting as Initiative No. 1983 pending an official proposition number, is headed for the November 3, 2026 general election. Backed by the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, the measure would raise the approval threshold for local voter-sponsored tax initiatives to two-thirds and limit how much cities can tax property sales.

What makes this different from a typical policy fight is that the initiative applies retroactively. San Jose officials have told local reporters it would nullify Measure E entirely, not just prevent future increases. San Jose City Councilmember David Cohen put it directly to San José Spotlight in June 2026:

"It would, within a year, invalidate Measure E, which is a huge hit to our budget."

The city has estimated the loss at between $55 million and $70 million a year in revenue currently tied to affordable housing and homelessness programs, and the City Council's Rules and Open Government Committee has already recommended the city formally oppose the measure.

Even some of the initiative's ideological allies have hesitated over this specific detail. Pat Waite, president of the San Jose-based Citizens for Fiscal Responsibility, told San José Spotlight he supports raising the voting threshold but not making it retroactive, calling that piece "unfair to voters and municipalities."

None of this changes what a seller owes today. Any transaction that closes before Election Day operates entirely under current rules, full stop. What it does change is the certainty a seller can have about transactions that close afterward. Cohen's own estimate puts implementation at up to a year out even if the measure passes, which means the disruption is not immediate. But it is also not zero, and nobody involved, including the people who wrote the initiative, is promising a clean transition if it does pass.

Where in San Jose This Actually Bites

Not every San Jose neighborhood lives near this line. Prime, established pockets do.

Almaden Valley's median sale price has bounced between roughly $2.0 million and $2.6 million across different months in 2026, depending on the data source and the seasonal mix of homes closing, with sales tending to peak each spring ahead of school enrollment deadlines. That range straddles the $2.3 million threshold directly, which means a given Almaden sale can land on either side of the Measure E line depending on upgrades, lot size, and how the spring market is running that year.

Willow Glen sits closer to the edge, with recent median figures ranging from just under $1.9 million to just over $2.1 million depending on the month and source measured. Most Willow Glen sales currently fall under the threshold, but the neighborhood's better-updated homes and larger lots regularly cross it, especially in a competitive spring where homes routinely sell above list.

Rose Garden sits in that same premium tier as Willow Glen and Almaden Valley, according to local market assessments, which puts it in the same conversation even without a hard median to point to. Cambrian, by contrast, skews toward older housing stock and lower price points, which makes Measure E a rarer event there, though a well-updated Cambrian sale can still cross the line.

City-wide, San Jose's median sale price sat at $1.4 million over the three months ending July 2026, which underscores how far above the typical San Jose transaction this tax actually sits. Measure E was built to touch a narrow slice of the market. In Almaden Valley and parts of Willow Glen, that narrow slice is closer to the norm than the exception.

What This Means If You're Deciding When to List

If your home is priced comfortably under $2.3 million, none of this changes your calendar. List when the market and your life circumstances say to list.

If your home is priced anywhere from roughly $2.2 million up through the tiers above, the calculus is different. Closing before November 3 removes any ambiguity about which rules apply. Closing after that date does not automatically mean anything changes, since even a successful initiative would take time to implement and would likely face legal challenges given the retroactivity question Pat Waite himself flagged. But it does mean you are negotiating and pricing during a window where the rules could shift under you before your deal is done.

This is also a moment to have an explicit conversation with your agent about who pays Measure E in your specific contract, rather than assuming the customary 50/50 split applies by default. On a home in the $2.3 million to $3.5 million range, that single negotiating point is worth tens of thousands of dollars either way.

Frequently Asked Questions

Does Measure E apply if I refinance instead of sell? No. Measure E is only triggered when property changes hands through a sale or transfer, not through refinancing.

Are inherited or gifted properties exempt? Certain transfers are exempt under state law and the San José municipal code, including transfers between spouses, some inheritances, and specific trust-related changes. If your situation involves an estate or trust, confirm exemption status with your escrow officer before assuming either way.

Who decides whether the buyer or seller pays Measure E? Your purchase agreement does. The 50/50 split is common practice in Santa Clara County, but it is negotiable and should be spelled out explicitly in your contract and escrow instructions.

If the November ballot measure passes, will I get a refund on Measure E I already paid? That question does not have a settled answer yet. City officials have said the initiative would invalidate Measure E within roughly a year of passage, but how that applies to transactions that already closed and already funded city programs is a legal question that has not been tested. Anyone with a pending or recent Measure E payment should watch this closely rather than assume either outcome.

Selling above $2.3 million in San Jose right now means pricing around a tax whose future is genuinely unresolved. That is exactly the kind of detail worth working through with someone who tracks it closely, not discovering it in escrow. VKG Real Estate Group offers a free home valuation for sellers in Almaden Valley, Willow Glen, and across San Jose who want a clear picture of where their home lands on this line before they list.

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